WHAT can you say to the families of the
many people killed during Ukraine’s
month-old “ceasefire”? At least 331
Ukrainian soldiers and civilians have
died since September 5th, when the
government and the rebels agreed to
stop fighting. Among the dead were a
Donetsk teacher caught in shelling and
Laurent DuPasquier, a Swiss worker with
the International Committee of the Red
Cross. The true toll may be even higher.
The worst of the latest violence is
centred around the Ukrainian-held
airport in Donetsk, once a sleek symbol
of progress, now a wasteland of rubble.
Another hotspot is the town of
Debaltseve, farther east on the road
from Donetsk to Luhansk. These places
are strategically important both for the
rebels, who need supply routes, and for the government, loth to lose any more
territory. The so-called ceasefire was but one point of a 12-step peace plan hashed out in
Minsk by Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s Petro Poroshenko. The broad
contours seemed to satisfy all parties. But the devil is in the detail, and
implementation has faltered. The Organisation for Security and Co-operation in
Europe lacks the manpower and armoured vehicles to monitor the entire region.
Serhiy Taruta, the Kiev-appointed governor of Donetsk, says the Minsk accords
are just too vague.
Prisoner swaps, another part of the
peace plan, confirm this. The official
agreement prescribes an “all for all”
exchange, but the rebels have far more
Ukrainian captives, and it is not clear
just which prisoners are covered. “The
mechanism was not worked out,” said
Oksana Bilozir, a hostage negotiator for
the Kiev government, as she supervised
a 30-for-30 exchange in late September
just north of Donetsk. More
fundamentally, Mr Taruta writes, “the
parties do not have a mutual vision of
the future of the Donbas region.”
For the rebels, that future goes far beyond the Minsk plan, which enjoys little
support inside their statelet, where it is seen as a diversion. Officials from the
Donetsk People’s Republic, announcing plans for local elections in early
November, proposed polls in Sloviansk and Mariupol, former rebel strongholds
now under Ukrainian control. Igor Plotnitsky, head of the Luhansk People’s
Republic and a signatory to the Minsk agreement, has told Russian media that
“sooner or later, we will become a part of the Russian Federation.” Schools in
Luhansk have reportedly begun receiving Russian textbooks.
The rebels are using this period to get ready for further conflict. “We’re
preparing, repairing equipment, digging trenches, training and resting,” says a
senior rebel commander nicknamed “Dushman”. Many of his men come from
towns north of Donetsk that are under Ukrainian control. They still have property
and belongings left behind during a hasty retreat in early July. Dushman’s
fighters will not abandon their homes for good. Ukrainian troops are also
fortifying their lines. At checkpoints west of Donetsk, tanks and troop carriers can
be found amid excavators and tractors.
Mr Poroshenko has staked his political life on peace, proclaiming that “the main
and most dangerous part of the war is behind us.” Mr Putin, beset by economic
concerns, is willing to play along. But Ukraine’s general election on October 26th
offers a new opportunity for chaos. Another Russian-backed offensive in the east
would damage Mr Poroshenko’s credibility with voters and could swing support to
nationalist parties, leading to a fractured parliament incapable of reform.
http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21623767-after-war-was-not-war-ceasefire-not-ceasefire-fight-clubukratko: iako je primirje borbe se vode oko Donjecka i Delbaceva. Vlada u Kijevu i pobunjenici imaju razlicita gledista na buducnost. Ljudi i dalje ginu u borbama.
ovo sam skinija preko mobitela pa je malo cudno oblikovano
