5 opcija za Australijske nuklearne podmornice

[MOTORISTA]

Od otkazivanja ugovora za gradnju 12 klasičnih podmornica sa Francuskom i objave da će Australija umesto njih nabaviti podmornice sa nuklearnim pogonom ne prestaju nagađanja koje bi to podmornice mogle da budu. H.I. Suton je dao svoje viđenje 5 potencijalnih nuklearnih napadnih podmornica koje bi RAN mogla da nabavi za svoje potrebe:

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The 5 Main Options For Australia’s AUKUS Nuclear Submarine Deal
H I Sutton  29 Sep 2021

As Australia looks set to join the elite club of nuclear submarine operators, we explore the options. The U.S. Navy's Virginia Class? The Royal Navy's Astute Class? Or something new? We have identified the 5 most obvious candidates.

Since the announcement that Australia will build nuclear-powered submarines on September 15, speculation has been rife as to which submarines are being considered. The partners, Australian-United Kingdom-United States (AUKUS), have given themselves 18 months to come up with a plan. Few details have trickled out since the joint announcement. So the question remains, which type of nuclear submarine will Australia get? Stepping back, let’s explore the options. We can be confident that the submarine will essentially be British or American. There are five main options to consider.

The first two are the U.S. Navy and Royal Navy’s existing designs, the (1) Virginia Class and (2) Astute Class. Then there are the corresponding next generation attack submarine programs, the (3) SSN(X) and (4) SSN(R). And lastly, (5) a whole new design but leveraging technology from US and UK.

More ambitiously it might be a substantially indigenous design with only minimal input from US or UK. Or perhaps the next generation submarine projects of all three countries will be combined into a single type, to be built in all three countries. These possibilities feel less likely at this point.

Other honorable mentions could include a fourth country’s design such as France or India. Or China or Russia (as if!). Or only second-hand submarines. Maybe even older ballistic missile types (SSBNs) repurposed as attack submarines. None of these solutions really ring true with the original announcement and are not being explored any further in this article.

1. Virginia Class – America’s trusted attack submarine

The first type which comes to many lips is the U.S. Navy’s Virginia Class. No one doubts its capabilities, and commonality with the US Navy would yield training and support benefits. It uses US weapons systems, which the RAN already has in its inventory, such as the Mk.48 ADCAP torpedo.

And its vertical launch system (VLS) gives compatibility with Tomahawk cruise missiles. Australia is already set to acquire these, but for the surface fleet. It would be natural to put them aboard the Virginias too.

In fact the Virginias make less sense without Tomahawk or some other missile to put into the VLS. The current Block-IV Virginias have 12 vertical missiles, and the Block-V will have 40. The Block-V’s capacity seems overkill, so a Block-IV appears more likely. Although benefiting from some advancements from later blocks.

A challenge with the Virginia Class could be the cost of setting up Australian production. Although there is speculation that Australia could acquire the boats straight off US production lines, this isn’t in the spirit of the announcement. And US yards have years of Virginia class construction ahead. So a new set of tooling would need to be made to set up a new production line in Australia.

2. Astute Class – the British option

The Royal Navy’s Astute class is broadly equivalent to the Virginia Class. Similar in overall size and capability, it may have a couple of advantages which might attract the RAN. The first is that, unlike with the Virginias, tooling might already be available. The last of the Royal Navy’s 7 boats, HMS Agincourt, is expected to be floated in the next couple of years. This might free up the tooling which could be shipped to Australia, representing a significant cost and time saving.

Another potential strength of the Astute is that it has a smaller crew. Still much larger than the current Collins Class, that is to be expected for a long-range nuclear boat, but smaller than the Virginia’s. The Astute is crewed by 98-109 people, while the Virginias normally have around 135. The Collin’s for comparison has 58, so we are talking about at least doubling the submariner needs.

A challenge for the Astute option might be the nuclear reactor. The current PWR2 reactor is no longer in production. Potentially the newer PWR3, or a US reactor, could be fitted, but this would complicate things.

At any rate an Australian Astute Class boat would likely have some modifications to suit RAN needs. We can speculate that these might include an alternative sonar and possibly US weapons to keep continuity with the Collins. But it is anyway compatible with tube-launched Tomahawks.

Some technologies for the next generation SSN(R) design could also be incorporated, which brings us to the next two options.

3 & 4. Next Generation Attack Submarines

Joining one of the existing next-generation projects, SSN(X) and SSN(R), could allow Australia to enter the nuclear submarine club at the very top. Advances in propulsion, sonar, stealth, quantum computing, integration with uncrewed underwater vehicles and so on, would be baked in.

It would also allow the other party, US or UK, to more directly share the development costs, which might be more attractive. The challenge of course will be timelines. Australia needs new submarines to be in the water in 2040s, and the current Collins Class will only last until around 2048. Both the SSN(X) and SSN(R) are expected to start getting wet in the 2030s. But timelines on these types of project are always likely subject to skepticism. Especially if another navy joins the party and adds requirements.

One key technology which hasn’t been discussed much is hypersonic weapons. The US Navy appears to be going that way, and possibly the Royal Navy too. If the RAN want to future-proof, them might consider this variable. Which boat lines them up best for future weapons?

The next-generation boats are also expected to be larger than the current types. Partly this will be due to improved stealth with new propulsion technologies. But in the submarine game, larger normally means more expensive.

5. A truly Australian design

By going their own way, Australia could build a submarine tailored to their needs while still leveraging key British or American technologies. The result might be a smaller and cheaper boat, yet still giving the RAN the main advantages of nuclear power.

Of course this option takes the biggest risk in design terms, even if the end product is more modest. In particular, it would place a strain on the limited pool of naval architects and engineers needed to design it. This is actually true of all the options above, but more so with this one. Would the Australian program be poaching designers from the SSN(X) and SSN(R) programs?

Outlook

Whatever the options being considered, building nuclear submarines in Australia will take decades. In the meantime the current Collins Class diesel-electric submarines will be upgraded to keep them operable.

The RAN might also consider leasing US Navy or Royal Navy boats. Several Los Angeles Class and Trafalgar Class boats are due for retirement in the coming years. These could be extended for a few years until the fuel runs out. Maybe even moored in port as stationary training platforms. In addition to these types of progressive steps, RAN submariners could become a common sight aboard British and American boats. And Australian engineers too.

Stepping back again, it is a massive undertaking for the RAN. But they are lucky to have the AUKUS partnership which opens the door to these illusive technologies. The biggest threat may be in the process. The boats are all excellent, there is almost no bad option. But an indecision or ambiguity could lead to delays. And regardless of the RAN program, we may see more countries going for nuclear submarines. And China, the focus of the AUKUS submarine deal, won’t slow down to accommodate Australia’s challenges.

Izvor: CLICK

[Dreadnought]

Čak i sami australijanci sumnjaju da će biti išta od ovog posla ...

Australia's nuclear submarine deal is going to 'unravel'


The Australian’s Foreign Editor Greg Sheridan says the nuclear-powered submarine deal Australia has with the United Kingdom and America is going to “unravel”.

“First of all, we can’t possibly build it in Adelaide, that’s just ridiculous, we don’t know anything about building nuclear submarines," Mr Sheridan told Sky News host Alan Jones.

“It’ll take us 15 years to train a workforce, the thousands of contractors you’d have to have involved with stuff certified for use in a nuclear submarine.

“But we’ll persist with this fiction because no government will be brave enough to say to Adelaide, you can’t build nuclear subs, then at some point we’ll work out it’s too expensive, it’s too far away and so we won’t abandon it, but we’ll say we’re going to get there eventually.

“At the moment, the government has had a tremendous political victory and it's done it so brilliantly because it doesn’t have to spend a dollar, it doesn’t have to do anything, it can just have a committee meeting for 18 months and everybody thinks we’ve got nuclear subs."

[MOTORISTA]

Zaleteli se pa obećavaju sve i svašta što lepo zvuči. Pitanje je za šta njima trebaju SSN?

[Dreadnought]

Australijancima je jedina opcija kupovina nuklearnih podmornica u inostranstvu, najverovatnije od engleza. Sami su sebe zakopali sa ovim poslom AUKUS-a.

Sumnjam da će SAD biti spremne da grade nove podmornice za Australiju iz mnogo raznih razloga, među kojima je možda najvažniji taj da su im svi kapaciteti potrebni za sopstvenu trku sa narastajućim kineskim kapacitetima.

Britanci za sebe planiraju gradnju nove generacije podmornica, sa gradnjom Astute za sebe su završili. Dok ne krenu sa novim projektom imaće kapaciteta i nekog viška kvalifikovanih inženjera i radne snage, pa možda uspeju da "uglave" koju Astute za Australiju, ali sumnjam. Za sve ovo rokovi su dugi, krajnje optimistično 20 godina minimum, 30 realnije.


Kratkoročno, jedino što australijanci mogu da se nadaju da dobiju u najam neku staru podmornicu. Sumnjam da su SAD spremne da ustupe neku Virdžiniju, pre neku od starijih podmornica LA klase, koje mogu uz remont da guraju još par decenija. Ili uspeju da iskukaju nešto od UK.

Opet, australiajanci nisu spremni za nuklearne podmornice ni u kakvom pogledu u kratkom roku, nemaju kapacitete ni sad da održavaju sve Collins-e koji trenutno nisu svi u funkciji.

Treba obučiti ljude za upravljanje i održavanje nove tehnologije, za to treba minimum 5 godina. Realnije je da Australija uz podmornice iznajmi i posadu "instruktora" koji će nadgledati sisteme i vršiti obuku.

Zaleteli se pa obećavaju sve i svašta što lepo zvuči. Pitanje je za šta njima trebaju SSN?

Pa i ne trebaju im, ali kad praviš ovakav ugovor sa SAD onda ti "trebaju". Uz savezništvo idu i podmornice. Uz kafu idu i ventilatori. Nema, samo vezano  

[MOTORISTA]

Pa i ne trebaju im, ali kad praviš ovakav ugovor sa SAD onda ti "trebaju". Uz savezništvo idu i podmornice. Uz kafu idu i ventilatori. Nema, samo vezano 

Ono jes...

[Dreadnought]

Australija nudi kompenzaciju za prekinut dogovor o podmornici


Australija je pristala da isplati 589 miliona dolara (835 miliona AU$) na ime kompenzacije francuskom brodogradilištu Naval Group nakon što je prošle godine prekinula veliki sporazum o podmornicama u sklopu AUKUS pakta sa Sjedinjenim Državama i Britanijom, najnovijeg pokušaja da se izgladi diplomatski spor iskrio pod poslednjom administracijom.

Premijer Entoni Albanez objavio je ponudu u subotu ujutru, rekavši novinarima da će aranžman uštedeti poreze, dok je iskoristio priliku da osudi bivšeg premijera Skota Morisona zbog predsedavanja „najrasipnijom vladom u istoriji Australije“.

„Ovo je ušteda od [AU] 5,5 milijardi dolara za koje je Senat rekao da će biti rezultat tog programa“, rekao je nedavno izabrani premijer, misleći na nesrećni dogovor sa francuskom firmom, dodajući da ta inicijativa „i dalje predstavlja izvanredan gubitak od vlade koja je uvek bila velika u najavama, ali nije bila dobra u isporuci.”

Albaneze je dalje rekao da će sporazum biti „fer i pravično rešenje“ nakon značajne nemire sa Parizom oko otkazanog podugovora vrednog 66 milijardi (90 milijardi AU$), napominjući da je ponuda prihvaćena nakon razgovora sa francuskim predsednikom Emanuelom Makronom.

Iako je Naval Group, proizvođač brodova u većinskom državnom vlasništvu, trebalo da napravi 12 podmornica za australsku flotu, trosmerni AUKUS sporazum sa SAD i Velikom Britanijom doveo je do toga da Kanbera naglo promeni kurs, umesto da traži podmornice iz Vašingtona. Francuska je oštro odgovorila, opozvavši svog ambasadora u Australiji, dok je Makron sugerisao da je Morison lagao o ugovoru.

Australijski premijer je zahvalio Makronu na njegovoj spremnosti da obnovi veze i izrazio nadu u lični sastanak sa francuskim liderom.

„Vidim da je lični sastanak između mene i predsednika Makrona u Francuskoj od apsolutno vitalnog značaja za resetovanje tog odnosa, koji je važan za nacionalne interese Australije“, rekao je on, dodajući „Radujem se što ću prihvatiti poziv predsednika Makrona da da posetim Pariz što je pre moguće.”

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[Dreadnought]

Australija da plati 600 miliona francuskoj odbrambenoj kompaniji


Australijska vlada pristala je da plati francuskoj odbrambenoj kompaniji Naval Group 830 miliona australskih dolara (585 miliona dolara) za raskid ugovora o podmornici dok se sprema da pređe na podmornice na nuklearni pogon kao deo saveza Aukus sa SAD i Velikom Britanijom.

Australija je potrošila 3,4 milijarde australijskih dolara na program klase Attack, koji nije isporučio nijednu podmornicu, i planirala je potencijalni udarac od 5,5 milijardi australskih dolara kako bi se izvukla iz francuskog ugovora. Anthoni Albanese, novi premijer Australije, opisao je dogovor kao „izuzetan gubitak“.

Odluka o otkazivanju ugovora od 90 milijardi australijskih dolara sa Navalom za 12 podmornica izazvala je krah u odnosima između Francuske i Australije prošlog septembra. Naval je u većinskom vlasništvu francuske vlade i ugovor je bio vodeći posao za odbrambenu industriju zemlje.

Francuski predsednik Emanuel Makron nazvao je tadašnjeg australijskog premijera Skota Morisona, koji je potpisao ugovor sa Aukusom, lažovom jer su se rasle optužbe da je Kanbera obmanula francuskog izvođača radova.

Albaneze, koji je prošlog meseca zamenio Morisona na mestu premijera, brzo je krenuo da se nagodi sa Francuzima, ključnim saveznikom na Pacifiku, i rekao je da planira da se sastane sa Makronom što je pre moguće kako bi resetovao odnose između zemalja, za koje je rekao da su „ vitalni” za nacionalne interese Australije.

„Duboko poštujemo ulogu Francuske i aktivno angažovanje u Indo-Pacifiku. S obzirom na težinu izazova sa kojima se suočavamo iu regionu i na globalnom nivou, od suštinskog je značaja da se Australija i Francuska još jednom ujedine u odbrani naših zajedničkih principa i interesa“, naveo je Albanese u saopštenju.

Australijska laburistička partija podržala je prelazak na Aukus, prema kojem će Australija dobiti podmornice na nuklearni pogon zbog kojih su konvencionalne dizel-električne podmornice iz Francuske postale suvišne, ali je kritikovala Morisonovo vođenje pregovora. Albanese je u subotu rekao da će prethodna administracija ostati upamćena kao „najrasipnija vlada u istoriji Australije od federacije”.

Australija se pridružila Aukusu kao deo kampanje za projektovanje svog vojnog uticaja i jačanje saveza u indo-pacifičkom regionu kao odgovor na rastuću asertivnost Kine.

Sporazum o otpremnini je takođe oživeo političke tenzije tokom protekle nedelje u vezi sa rasporedom sporazuma sa Aukusom, a Ričard Marles, novi ministar odbrane, je rekao da je raspored isporuke Morisonove vlade za australijske podmornice na nuklearni pogon nerealan.

Morison je prošle godine rekao da bi prva od podmornica na nuklearni pogon mogla biti izgrađena u Adelaidi 2040. godine, ali se kasnije činilo da je smanjio vremensku liniju i količinu projekta koji će biti izgrađen u Australiji.

Piter Daton, ministar odbrane u vreme kada je Aukus potpisan, a sada lider opozicije, odgovorio je pisanjem u uvodniku u australijskim novinama da je planirao da kupi dve američke podmornice klase Virdžinija do 2030. godine, i izrazio zabrinutost da Laburisti bi se udaljili od pakta.

To je donelo oštar ukor od Marlesa i bezbednosnih analitičara zbog otkrivanja osetljivih informacija u vreme kada Australija još nije zvanično izabrala između britanskog i američkog izvođača podmornica.

Marles, koji ove nedelje prisustvuje dijalogu Shangri-La u Singapuru, opisao je Datonovu intervenciju kao „politiku ranga“, dok je Albanez rekao da je Daton imao odgovornost da „stavi nacionalni interes na prvo mesto“.

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